By now, it’s no secret that Canada’s long-standing love affair with winter escapes to the United States is cooling fast. The latest Winter Smart Traveller Survey from the Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada (THIA) paints a stark picture: only 26 per cent of Canadians plan to head south this winter a steep 37 per cent drop from last year. For baby boomers, traditionally the heart of the snowbird crowd, the falloff is even more dramatic. Just one in ten are still planning U.S. trips, marking a massive 66 per cent decline.
At first glance, the culprit might seem obvious: politics. With Donald Trump back in the White House and his administration reigniting trade tensions, it’s hard to ignore the ripple effects across the border. In fact, 40 per cent of respondents admitted political tensions played a role in their decision to stay put. But it’s not just politics it’s the pocketbook. Rising travel costs topped the list of deterrents, with 41 per cent saying it’s simply too expensive to make the trip south this year.
There’s also a growing unease about the changing tone at the U.S. border. Reports of new rules requiring Canadians staying more than 30 days to register with the U.S. government combined with “inconsistent experiences” reported by travellers have only fueled uncertainty. Add in fingerprinting, photographing, and the general air of unpredictability, and it’s no wonder many are rethinking their annual migration.
Interestingly, not all generations are reacting the same way. Younger Canadians Gen Z and millennials remain more open to visiting the U.S., with 44 per cent of Gen Z still planning trips south. Even so, that figure has dipped by 18 per cent since last year. Clearly, the sentiment shift cuts across age groups, though it hits older travellers hardest.
And perhaps that’s not entirely bad news. Marion Joppe, professor emerita at the University of Guelph, notes that a domestic tourism boom may be just around the corner. With fewer Canadians flocking to Florida or Arizona, local destinations stand to benefit. “Canada is a wonderful country, incredibly diverse,” Joppe reminds us. “But a lot of Canadians have never explored Canada.”
Maybe this winter, as the snowbirds settle into cabins in Banff, cottages in Muskoka, or condos in Vancouver, they’ll rediscover something the sunny south can’t offer the beauty of home. In a time of political tension and global uncertainty, perhaps there’s comfort in staying closer to what’s familiar, local, and proudly Canadian.
