Quebec Population Set to Shrink Before Levelling Off, New Projections Show

Quebec is bracing for a modest population dip over the next several years, according to fresh projections released Tuesday by the province’s statistics agency, which point to a temporary immigration slowdown as the main driver behind the shift.

The data suggests the province could lose roughly 50,000 residents between 2025 and 2029, marking a notable departure from the steady growth Quebec has experienced in recent years. Officials attribute much of this contraction to fewer temporary immigrants entering the province, a trend that has ripple effects across regional economies and labour markets.

But the outlook isn’t uniformly bleak. Once this initial decline runs its course, demographers expect the population to level out and hold steady at approximately 9.17 million over the following decades a modest increase from the 9.06 million residents recorded in 2025.

The projections reveal a province of contrasts, with some regions poised for solid expansion while others face sustained population loss.

Quebec City is forecast to lead the pack, with growth reaching 14 per cent by 2051 the strongest performance of any region in the province. Just next door, the Chaudière-Appalaches region is expected to follow closely behind, posting an 11 per cent increase over the same period.

The picture looks considerably different along the province’s outer edges. The Côte-Nord region, situated north of the St. Lawrence River, is projected to shrink by 15 per cent, making it the hardest-hit area in the province. Not far behind, the Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine region on Quebec’s eastern tip is expected to see an 11 per cent decline.

Perhaps most striking is the forecast for Montreal itself. The city, long a magnet for newcomers and a driver of provincial growth, is expected to see its population decrease in the years ahead.

Analysts point to two intertwined factors behind this shift: a drop in the overall number of immigrants arriving in the province, coupled with deliberate government efforts to steer newcomers toward Quebec’s regional communities rather than concentrating them in the metropolis. This regional dispersal strategy appears to be reshaping settlement patterns in ways that are now showing up clearly in the long-term data.

Together, the figures paint a picture of a province in demographic transition one where growth is increasingly shifting away from its traditional urban core and toward mid-sized regional hubs, even as certain remote areas continue to grapple with population decline.