When the 2026 FIFA World Cup referee blows the opening whistle later this month, economists say Canada will feel more than just the roar of the crowd. A new report from BMO Economics suggests the tournament will deliver a tangible, if temporary, boost to the country’s struggling economy though analysts are careful not to oversell what amounts to a sprint rather than a marathon.
According to the report, international tourism tied to the event could generate anywhere between $1 billion and $5 billion for the Canadian economy, while domestic consumer spending think bar tabs, hotel bills, and restaurant reservations is expected to add another $500 million to $1.5 billion on top of that. Taken together, these gains could nudge Canada’s quarterly GDP upward by roughly 0.1 percentage points on an annualized basis, spread across the second and third quarters of the year. Ontario and British Columbia, which will host the tournament’s 13 Canadian matches across Toronto and Vancouver, are set to feel the impact most acutely.
BMO’s chief economist Doug Porter was measured in his assessment, describing the World Cup’s economic contribution as real but firmly bounded in time.
“The key point is there are real economic effects from a large sporting event or a large entertainment event like this,” Porter said in an interview. “But I don’t think we should be under any illusion that it’s anything other than a short-lived bump from the increased spending, and it tends to be relatively modest.”
Still, he noted, the timing could hardly be more welcome. Canada’s economy has been grinding through a rough patch. Statistics Canada recently confirmed that economic growth ground to a halt in the first quarter of 2026, marking a second consecutive quarterly decline in real GDP a threshold that some economists define as a technical recession. Against that backdrop, even a small lift in activity carries real weight.
“Even modest growth should be viewed as a win,” Porter said.
The report draws an important distinction that helps put the numbers in perspective. While domestic consumers are expected to spend more freely during the tournament a pattern borne out by Moneris data showing Canadian bar and restaurant spending climbed more than 10 per cent during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar that spending largely represents a shift rather than a net gain. Canadians buying match-day nachos and pitchers of beer are probably not spending money they wouldn’t have spent anyway; they’re just spending it differently.
It’s a different story for international visitors. Money flowing in from tourists who wouldn’t otherwise have set foot in Canada represents a genuine injection into the economy fresh dollars that wouldn’t exist here without the tournament. The BMO report is clear on this point: only spending by foreign travellers constitutes a clear net benefit.
The report also tempers longer-term ambitions about what the World Cup can do for Canada. While the U.S. is expected to capture the largest share of tourism revenues given its outsized number of host venues, Canada and Mexico will benefit meaningfully as well. But the economic case for hosting, BMO argues, rests on a short-term demand surge not on any structural transformation of the economy that would keep paying dividends for years.
Hosting the world’s most-watched sporting event doesn’t come cheap. Canada’s federal budget watchdog reported last month that the country will spend just over $1 billion to put on its portion of the tournament $1.07 billion in total, when contributions from federal, provincial, and municipal governments are added up. Ottawa’s share alone comes to $473 million.
Broken down by game, that equates to roughly $82 million per match played in Canada a figure that, depending on one’s perspective, is either a bold investment in the country’s global profile or a steep price for what BMO describes as a temporary economic tailwind.
World Cup organizers have cited more optimistic projections. FIFA has estimated that the Greater Toronto Area alone could see up to $940 million in economic output, while the British Columbia government projected more than a billion dollars in tourism revenue over the five years following the games in Vancouver.
Whether those numbers bear out remains to be seen. For now, the more cautious read from BMO offers a grounded counterpoint: the World Cup will be good for Canada but probably not transformative. And given the state of the economy heading into kickoff, that may be enough.
