Canadian Travel to the U.S. Slowly Rebounds, But Still Far Below Pre-Tariff Levels

Canadian residents are gradually returning to the United States after more than a year of sharply reduced cross-border travel, though the numbers remain dramatically lower than before the trade war and political tensions that sparked a widespread boycott.

Statistics Canada data shows that Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. reached 1.7 million in June 2026 a 3.2 per cent increase compared to June 2025, marking the second consecutive monthly gain since January. Road travel led the recovery, with automobile return trips climbing 5.2 per cent year over year, though air travel moved in the opposite direction, falling 3.8 per cent over the same period.

The modest uptick follows a similar increase recorded in April, when return trips from the U.S. rose 1.8 per cent compared to the prior year the first sign of recovery after months of sustained decline.

Despite back-to-back gains, the broader picture tells a starker story. Compared to June 2024 before the trade dispute reshaped cross-border relations return trips from the U.S. are still down a staggering 28.7 per cent. Automobile travel has taken the hardest hit, dropping 29.6 per cent from two years ago, while air travel is down 25 per cent over the same stretch.

The pullback traces back to early 2025, when U.S. President Donald Trump who was inaugurated in January of that year imposed sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods and repeatedly suggested Canada could become the 51st American state. The remarks, combined with economic pressure, triggered a broad boycott of U.S. travel among Canadians that has now stretched beyond 15 months.

While Canadian travel south of the border limped toward recovery, Canada itself saw a surge of international visitors in June, largely fuelled by the FIFA World Cup.

Overseas resident trips to Canada jumped 5.1 per cent in June 2026 compared to the same month last year, with the bulk of arrivals coming by air up 5.8 per cent year over year. Travel peaked on June 26, near the tail end of the tournament’s Canadian leg.

Toronto and Vancouver hosted 13 World Cup matches between June 11 and July 2, drawing fans from around the globe. Among the 15 overseas nations that played on Canadian soil, air arrivals from those countries combined rose 32.5 per cent compared to June 2025.

The data captured some vivid match-day patterns. Australian visitors flooded into Vancouver on June 12, the day before their team’s match in the city. Panamanian arrivals spiked on June 16, the eve of their Toronto fixture, and again around June 23 when Panama faced Croatia in the same city. German fans touched down in the greatest numbers on June 19, ahead of their clash against Ivory Coast in Toronto the following day.

The tournament appears to have provided a meaningful short-term lift for Canadian tourism a sharp contrast to the quieter mood along the Canada–U.S. border, where a slow and cautious normalization is still very much underway.