Canada Unlikely to Strike Tariff Deal with U.S. Before Midterms, Says Former Chief Trade Negotiator

Canada’s top trade voice is pumping the brakes on any optimism about a swift resolution to the ongoing tariff standoff with Washington.

Steve Verheul, who served as Canada’s chief trade negotiator and led the country through the bruising renegotiation of NAFTA during Donald Trump’s first term, says he sees little chance of Ottawa and Washington hammering out a tariff agreement before the U.S. midterm elections this fall.

Speaking Tuesday at a Bank of Montreal client event focused on the trade outlook, Verheul acknowledged there may be a narrow opening before the midterms a moment when the Trump administration might want to point to a deal as a political win but he isn’t holding his breath. In his view, any substantive negotiations are more likely to spill into next year.

His skepticism doesn’t stop there. Verheul was candid in his assessment that nothing resembling a favorable deal for Canada has even been floated so far. He also raised broader doubts about the durability of trade agreements other countries have recently signed with the United States, questioning whether those deals will hold up over time.

The timing of his remarks is significant. July 1 marks the formal start of the review process for the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement the trade pact that replaced NAFTA putting trade relations squarely back in the spotlight. Verheul noted that the agreement continues to shield the bulk of Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs, which he sees as a signal that the deal still delivers real value for Washington, even amid the current tensions.

For Canadian businesses and policymakers, the message is a sobering one: the road ahead on trade is long, and a quick fix is not on the horizon.