Canadians Split Between Fear and Disbelief Over Possible U.S. Military Threat: Ipsos Poll

A new national survey suggests Canadians are deeply divided over the once-unthinkable idea of a U.S. military threat, as expansionist rhetoric from Donald Trump continues to unsettle public opinion north of the border.

According to an Ipsos poll conducted for Global News, an equal share of Canadians simultaneously doubts and fears the possibility of a U.S. invasion. While 56 per cent believe the United States would never use military force against Canada, the same proportion admit they are worried such a scenario could occur under Trump’s leadership.

The findings reflect a dramatic shift in mindset. Ipsos Public Affairs senior vice-president Gregory Jack said the question itself would have seemed unnecessary just a year ago. “Public confidence that an invasion was unrealistic would have been overwhelming then,” he noted. “Now, opinion is almost evenly split.”

The poll reveals that concern is not evenly distributed. Women expressed higher levels of fear than men, while Canadians aged 18 to 34 were significantly more likely to believe military force could be used against Canada. Analysts link these anxieties to recent global tensions and Trump’s renewed talk of territorial expansion.

Although Trump has previously insisted he would rely on “economic force” rather than military action against Canada, unease intensified after he openly discussed acquiring Greenland at one point refusing to rule out the use of force. Even after later walking back those comments and announcing a NATO-backed framework on Arctic security, the damage to public confidence appears to have lingered.

Despite growing fears, Canadians continue to place strong faith in international alliances. More than three-quarters of respondents said they believe NATO would defend Canada in the event of a U.S. attack. Confidence drops sharply when it comes to Canada acting alone: only 37 per cent believe the Canadian Armed Forces could successfully repel an invasion without allied support.

While 50 per cent said they would be open to participating in a formal civil defence or preparedness program, willingness to personally enlist fell to 43 per cent. Support for mandatory military service was even lower, at just 38 per cent.

Notably, if defending the country proved unrealistic, a majority of Canadians 53 per cent said the priority should be reducing casualties, even if that meant surrendering rather than continuing to fight.

The poll also highlights a sharp contrast in political trust. Half of Canadians said they would most trust Mark Carney to handle a military crisis involving the U.S., compared with just 16 per cent who chose Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. One in four respondents said they would trust neither leader.

Jack suggested the results reflect both Carney’s position as prime minister and his recent high-profile address at the World Economic Forum, where he warned that the global rules-based order is under strain.

“Poilievre is often seen as stronger on issues like affordability and crime,” Jack said. “But on foreign threats and international crises, Canadians clearly feel Carney is better suited to lead.”

Ipsos cautioned that public opinion could shift quickly if circumstances change. For now, the prospect of a U.S. military invasion remains hypothetical. Still, the poll underscores how rapidly geopolitical uncertainty fueled by rhetoric, symbolism, and global instability has reshaped Canadian attitudes toward national security and its closest ally.

As Jack put it, “The fact that Canadians are even contemplating this scenario tells us how much the international environment has changed in a very short time.”