The idea that the United States could one day attempt “direct action” against Canada sounds, at first glance, like something out of a political thriller rather than a serious public concern. Yet a recent poll suggests that nearly one-third of Canadians believe exactly that. In the wake of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, anxiety about American intentions has clearly spilled beyond Latin America and into the Canadian psyche.
This is not merely about Venezuela. It is about trust, precedent, and the uneasy feeling that global rules are becoming optional for the world’s most powerful country.
According to the poll, conducted online in early January, Canadians are increasingly convinced that the United States is willing to use force to achieve its strategic goals. Canada, Greenland, Cuba, Colombia, Panama, and Iran all appear on the list of countries that Canadians think could face future American intervention. That 31 per cent of Canadians believe their own country could be a target is striking not because it is likely, but because it reflects a deep erosion of confidence in the predictability and restraint of U.S. foreign policy.
What makes this even more unsettling is that one in five Americans surveyed agree with the idea that the U.S. might someday attempt to take control of Canada. When citizens of a country can imagine their own government engaging in such an extreme act against a close ally, it says less about Canada and more about how normalized interventionist thinking has become.
At the heart of this concern lies Venezuela. A majority of Canadians view the U.S. military operation there as a violation of sovereignty and a dangerous precedent. For them, the issue is not whether Nicolás Maduro is a corrupt or authoritarian leader many agree that he is but whether removing him through military force undermines the very international norms that are supposed to prevent chaos. If powerful countries decide unilaterally when sovereignty matters and when it does not, then international order becomes fragile, and smaller nations understandably grow nervous.
There is also widespread skepticism about American motives. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians believe the intervention was driven primarily by a desire to control Venezuela’s oil reserves. Only a small minority accept the explanation that it was about restoring democracy or holding Maduro legally accountable. This perception feeds a long-standing narrative that U.S. foreign policy is guided less by values and more by interests, especially economic ones.
Unsurprisingly, these views have taken a toll on how Canadians see the U.S. government. More than half say their impression of it has worsened following the intervention. Very few report an improved opinion. Even among Americans, reactions are deeply divided, with a significant portion saying the operation damaged their view of their own government. This suggests that skepticism about military intervention is not confined to America’s critics abroad; it is also present at home.
Interestingly, older Canadians appear to be paying the closest attention. Perhaps this generation, shaped by the Cold War and past conflicts, is more attuned to the consequences of great-power behavior. Their heightened engagement may also explain the renewed sense of patriotism and defensiveness noted by pollsters a reflexive instinct to protect national sovereignty when it feels, however abstractly, under threat.
To be clear, the idea of the United States attempting to take control of Canada remains far-fetched. The two countries are deeply integrated economically, politically, and militarily. But opinion polls are not about predicting reality; they are about measuring perception. And right now, the perception among many Canadians is that the U.S. is more willing than before to use force, less respectful of borders, and less constrained by international norms.
These are “interesting times,” as one pollster put it, but they are also unsettling ones. When even close allies begin to imagine worst-case scenarios, it signals a broader crisis of confidence in global leadership. For Canada, the challenge will be to balance a pragmatic relationship with its powerful neighbour while reaffirming, at home and abroad, that sovereignty and international law are not optional.
