For decades, when Canadians thought about threats to our Arctic sovereignty, the names that came to mind were predictable: Russia, with its military posturing, or China, with its growing appetite for influence in polar affairs. But a recent poll of Northern Canadians has turned that assumption on its head and the result should make every policymaker in Ottawa sit up straight.
According to new data from Québec’s Observatoire de la politique et de la sécurité de l’Arctique (OPSA), 37% of Northerners now see the United States yes, our closest ally as the greatest threat to Canada’s North. That’s higher than Russia (35%) and far ahead of China (17%).
At first glance, this might seem counterintuitive. After all, Canada and the U.S. have long cooperated on Arctic security through NORAD and other defense agreements. But when you factor in the volatile rhetoric and erratic policymaking of Donald Trump, the picture starts to make unsettling sense.
Mathieu Landriault, OPSA’s director, called the finding “alarming,” and he’s right. The feeling is especially strong in Yukon, which shares a border with Alaska, and Nunavut, whose northern neighbour Greenland has been the subject of Trump’s bizarre annexation fantasies.
“There’s that feeling that the U.S. now is a destabilizing force in the region, for sure,” Landriault explained. And who can blame Northerners for feeling uneasy? Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of making Canada the “51st state,” and he doubled down on that notion recently in a rambling speech to U.S. military brass.
“Why don’t you just join our country? You become 51 become the 51st state and you get it for free,” Trump quipped.
It’s easy to dismiss such comments as bluster. But when they’re paired with aggressive tariffs, unpredictable executive orders, and a dismissive attitude toward Canadian sovereignty, they stop being jokes and start sounding like strategy.
Ottawa has long preferred to see the Arctic as a “cooperatively managed” low-tension zone. But that illusion is cracking fast. Climate change is opening new shipping routes and access to rare earth minerals, drawing the attention of both polar and non-polar powers. Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing are stepping up joint patrols and research missions in northern waters activities that Canada and its allies rightly view with suspicion.
Global Affairs briefing documents warn that “international guardrails to prevent and resolve conflict have weakened.” Add Trump’s provocations to that mix, and you have a recipe for uncertainty in a region that has never been more strategically important.
There’s another layer to this story that shouldn’t be overlooked. Russian propaganda often frames NATO’s Arctic activities as dangerous militarization, portraying Russia’s own moves as defensive. Trump’s talk of annexing Canada or Greenland feeds directly into this narrative. It allows Moscow to depict Canada as a mere pawn of Washington a message that can resonate in Northern communities already targeted by foreign disinformation campaigns.
The NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence and the University of Ottawa’s Information Integrity Lab have both documented how Russia uses hybrid tactics from cyberattacks to fake narratives to destabilize Arctic actors. Trump’s rhetoric isn’t just careless; it actively helps adversaries undermine Canada’s position.
The OPSA poll surveyed 609 voting-age residents of Canada’s three northern territories this past spring. While that may seem like a small number, the results are statistically robust and politically explosive.
If Northerners no longer see Washington as a reliable partner, then Canada has a serious diplomatic problem on its hands. Arctic security isn’t just about defending ice and tundra; it’s about trust, alliances, and narratives. And right now, Trump’s America is shaking that trust more than Russia or China.
Canada can’t afford to be complacent. Strengthening northern communities, asserting sovereignty clearly, and investing in serious Arctic infrastructure are all essential steps. But so is confronting the uncomfortable reality that our greatest strategic challenge may be coming not from across the ocean but from across the border.
