July’s housing data from the Greater Toronto Area offers a glimmer of optimism for buyers and sellers alike. Home sales jumped 10.9% compared to the same month last year, with 6,100 properties changing hands the busiest July since 2021. On a month-to-month basis, sales were up an even sharper 13%, suggesting that improved affordability is starting to lure hesitant buyers back into the market.
But let’s not pop the champagne just yet. The average selling price fell 5.5% year-over-year to $1,051,719, and the benchmark price the one that better reflects a “typical” home slid 5.4%. Yes, lower prices combined with slightly friendlier borrowing costs are helping, but the reality is that affordability remains a stubborn challenge for most households.
TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule is right when she says more relief is needed, especially around borrowing costs. For many would-be buyers, a small drop in rates isn’t enough to meaningfully change the monthly payment math especially when six figures of income still barely qualify you for an average home.
The supply side of the equation is shifting, too. New listings in July rose 5.7% year-over-year, while active listings surged 26.2%, hitting 30,215 homes on the market. More choice is great news for buyers, but it also suggests that sellers might be feeling a bit more pressure to meet the market rather than holding out for last year’s prices.
The way things are shaping up, we may be in the early stages of a more balanced GTA housing market one where buyers and sellers negotiate on more equal footing. Still, the market won’t truly “wake up” until interest rates come down further and affordability improves in a more meaningful way. For now, July’s numbers are a positive sign, but we’re only halfway to where we need to be.
