Majority Support Grows for Liberals as Poll Signals Strong Lead Ahead of Byelections

A new national poll suggests that more than half of Canadians are backing the federal Liberals in their bid to secure a majority government, as the country heads into a crucial set of byelections this Monday.

According to an Ipsos survey conducted exclusively for Global News, 53 per cent of Canadians want the Liberals to win enough seats to form a majority government, while 47 per cent oppose the idea. The results highlight a growing appetite for political stability at a time when the country faces significant domestic and international challenges.

The survey also reveals clear partisan divides. Support for a Liberal majority is strongest among Liberal voters, but notably, 56 per cent of NDP supporters also favour the outcome. Conservative voters, meanwhile, remain largely opposed.

Prime Minister Mark Carney appears well-positioned to benefit from this sentiment. Two of the three byelections are taking place in Toronto-area ridings long considered Liberal strongholds, making it increasingly likely the party will surpass the 172-seat threshold required for a majority in the House of Commons.

Adding to the Liberals’ momentum is a series of high-profile defections. Most recently, former Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu crossed the floor, becoming the fourth ex-Conservative and fifth MP overall to join the Liberals since December 2025. Earlier, NDP MP Lori Idlout also switched allegiance.

While party-switching has historically been unpopular with voters, Ipsos Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker noted that Canadians seem willing to overlook the practice in this case.

“Even if people don’t like how it’s happening, they appear to accept the outcome especially if it brings stability during uncertain times,” Bricker explained, pointing to tensions with the United States and other pressing issues.

The shifting political landscape is creating new challenges for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. With the likelihood of an imminent federal election diminishing, internal party dynamics may become more difficult to manage.

“He can no longer argue that the party must stay united to prepare for an election at any moment,” Bricker said. “That changes the pressure within his caucus.”

The poll also indicates declining Conservative support nationwide. If a general election were held today, 45 per cent of voters would choose the Liberals, compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives a 12-point gap that has widened significantly since late 2025.

Much of this shift appears to come not only from traditional NDP voters but also from former Conservative supporters. Younger voters, who previously leaned Conservative due to concerns about affordability, are now showing increased openness to the Liberals. Among those aged 18 to 35, 29 per cent would vote Liberal, compared to 22 per cent for the Conservatives.

Gender differences in voting patterns have also narrowed, with men and women now equally likely at around 45 per cent to support the Liberals. This marks a departure from past trends where male voters were more inclined toward Conservative candidates.

Despite these national trends, Conservative support remains strongest in provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, though even there it falls short of majority backing.

Meanwhile, the NDP holds steady at nine per cent support, while the Bloc Québécois stands at seven per cent nationally, with stronger backing in Quebec. The Green Party trails at two per cent, alongside the People’s Party of Canada, which has seen a slight uptick.

As byelection day approaches, the data points to a political environment increasingly favourable to the Liberals one that could soon translate into a decisive parliamentary majority.