Ontario Liberals Uphold Nomination Result, Dealing Blow to Erskine-Smith’s Leadership Hopes

Nate Erskine-Smith’s path to the Ontario Liberal leadership has hit a serious roadblock after the party’s arbitration panel dismissed his appeal of a nomination contest loss in Scarborough Southwest, confirming Ahsanul Hafiz as the riding’s Liberal candidate for an upcoming byelection.

The federal MP, who represents the neighbouring riding of Beaches-East York, had entered the local nomination race with a clear strategic goal win the provincial seat, then use it as a launchpad for a Liberal leadership bid. That plan now looks shaky at best. Erskine-Smith himself has acknowledged that running for the leadership is now “much less likely.”

After losing the nomination earlier this month, Erskine-Smith raised a series of concerns about how the vote was conducted. Chief among them was a discrepancy of 34 ballots more votes counted than voters on record. He also alleged that some participants couldn’t provide their address or claimed to have “just lost” their driver’s licence, suggesting people who weren’t eligible may have cast ballots.

The panel wasn’t convinced. In its ruling released Sunday, it concluded that the ballot discrepancy was the result of administrative error specifically, scrutineers failing to cross names off the voter list rather than any deliberate manipulation. On the broader question of voter eligibility, the panel found no evidence that a single ineligible person had cast a ballot.

“We have carefully considered all of the evidence,” the panel wrote, declaring Hafiz the “true winner” of the nomination.

Beyond the procedural complaints, Erskine-Smith also pointed a finger at the party’s “establishment,” suggesting insiders had worked behind the scenes to block his candidacy. The panel examined that claim and found it equally unpersuasive.

Notably, the ruling pointed out that neither Erskine-Smith nor his scrutineers raised any objections while the nomination meeting was actually underway. Their concerns only surfaced after the results were announced a detail the panel did not overlook.

“We conclude that Mr. Erskine-Smith’s scrutineers did not take issue with the comings and goings of the nomination meeting while it was underway, and did not decide to complain about it until after the meeting had ended and the outcome was known,” the panel stated pointedly.

Erskine-Smith’s bid was not without controversy from the start. Some fellow nomination candidates were openly uncomfortable with what they perceived as an outsider using a working-class Toronto riding as a mere stepping stone to higher ambitions. The tension between his leadership aspirations and the community’s desire for a candidate genuinely invested in Scarborough Southwest was a recurring undercurrent throughout the contest.

With the appeal dismissed, the party is now turning its attention to the byelection itself, which must be called before the end of summer. The seat became vacant after NDP MPP Doly Begum resigned to successfully contest the federal riding of Scarborough Southwest under the Liberal banner.

Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser struck a forward-looking tone following the ruling. “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest,” he said. “They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”

As for Erskine-Smith, he has said he still plans to resign his federal seat but what comes next for his provincial political ambitions remains an open question.