Canada Records Second Consecutive Population Decline Amid Drop in Temporary Residents

Canada has recorded a notable decline in its population for the second consecutive quarter, marking an unprecedented trend in the country’s demographic history. According to the latest estimates released by Statistics Canada, the national population fell by 103,504 people between October 1, 2025, and January 1, 2026.

This back-to-back quarterly decline is the first of its kind on record, signaling a shift from the strong population growth seen in previous years. As of January 1, 2026, Canada’s population stands at 41,472,081, remaining significantly below levels recorded during the same period in 2023 and 2024.

A key factor behind the population drop is the sharp decrease in non-permanent residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers. The federal government has been actively working to reduce the share of temporary residents to five percent of the total population by the end of 2026, aiming to ease pressure on housing, infrastructure, and public services.

After peaking at over 3.1 million in October 2024, the number of non-permanent residents declined steadily to approximately 2.67 million by January 2026. Between October 2025 and January 2026 alone, their numbers dropped by more than 171,000 across all provinces and Yukon.

The decline was particularly noticeable among individuals holding study permits, work permits, or both. New student arrivals in January 2026 fell to just over 7,000, a steep 37 percent drop compared to the same month in 2025. Similarly, new worker arrivals decreased by 20 percent, totaling around 11,850.

As of the end of January 2026, Canada had roughly 460,695 study permit holders, 1.48 million work permit holders, and about 234,770 individuals holding both permits.

The slowdown is not limited to temporary migration. Permanent immigration levels have also declined. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Canada welcomed 83,168 permanent residents a nearly 20 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

Despite the drop, a significant portion of new permanent residents around 60 percent in January 2026 were individuals transitioning from temporary status. This reflects the government’s strategy of selecting over 40 percent of permanent residents from within the existing temporary population.

Ontario continued to attract the largest share of immigrants, receiving more than 42 percent of new arrivals in late 2025. Quebec, however, stood out as the only province to record an increase in new permanent residents compared to the previous year.

Canada had already begun experiencing slower population growth earlier in 2025, with the third quarter recording one of the largest declines on record. During that period, the number of non-permanent residents dropped by nearly six percent the steepest decrease since such data began being tracked in 1971.

Officials caution that these figures should be interpreted carefully. A recent increase in extensions for work and study permits could result in revisions to population estimates in the coming months.

Despite the recent slowdown, Canada’s long-term population goals remain ambitious. The country aims to grow its population to approximately 76 million over the next 50 years, relying on a more balanced and sustainable immigration strategy to achieve that target.

The current decline highlights a transitional phase in Canada’s population dynamics, as policymakers attempt to balance economic needs with infrastructure capacity and long-term sustainability.