Ontario’s Dirty Energy Backslide: A Preventable Setback in the Clean Energy Race

There was a time not too long ago when Ontario stood out as a climate leader, proudly boasting one of the cleanest electricity grids in North America. That time seems to be slipping further into the rearview mirror.

According to the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), 2024 marked the highest percentage of greenhouse gas-emitting electricity generation in Ontario since coal was still part of the mix in 2012. Sixteen percent of our grid last year came from natural gas—up from 13 percent the year before and a steep climb from just 4 percent in 2017. That means Ontario’s grid was 84 percent emissions-free in 2024, down from its high of 96 percent just seven years ago. For a province that once proudly declared itself coal-free, this backslide should alarm anyone paying attention to climate policy and energy planning.

Of course, the government has its reasons. Nuclear refurbishments have taken some of the province’s largest clean energy producers temporarily offline, and with supply tight, gas has filled the gap. The IESO says this is about maintaining grid stability. Fair enough. But to suggest this was unforeseeable is disingenuous at best.

Aliénor Rougeot from Environmental Defence said it best: this moment was both “extremely upsetting and yet super predictable.” The decisions we make today—or fail to make—echo years into the future. Ontario had the opportunity to scale up renewable energy and invest in battery storage technologies. But instead, Premier Doug Ford’s government axed 750 renewable energy contracts in 2018, seemingly more interested in scoring political points than securing a stable and green energy future. The price for that short-sightedness is now becoming painfully clear.

Critics warned about this. And yet, in 2024, when the IESO was poised to procure more non-emitting sources, new Energy Minister Stephen Lecce pivoted to a “technology agnostic” approach. In theory, that sounds neutral. In practice, it opens the door wide to more natural gas—a move that undermines years of climate progress.

Minister Lecce insists this dip is just a blip, part of a necessary transition as nuclear units undergo upgrades that will extend their lifespan. He even promises a grid that’s 99 percent non-emitting by 2050. But promises decades away do little to offset the real emissions happening today. Climate change doesn’t wait for long-term timelines; it reacts to what we emit now.

And here’s the kicker: Ontario’s clean grid has been one of its strongest calling cards when attracting international businesses and investment. A grid that’s 96 percent clean is a powerful draw in a global economy increasingly focused on sustainability. An 84 percent clean grid? Less so. Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner is right to be worried: Ontario is losing one of its key competitive advantages—and at precisely the moment we need to be drawing capital investment, not scaring it off.

There is a path forward, but it requires political will. Wind and solar are no longer fringe technologies; they’re mainstream and rapidly becoming more affordable. Battery storage is evolving quickly. Stephen Thomas from the David Suzuki Foundation makes the case clearly: the cost of natural gas is volatile and rising, while renewables continue to drop in price. Betting on gas now is like investing in Blockbuster in the age of Netflix.

Ontario doesn’t need to choose between stability and sustainability. With the right planning—and crucially, the right leadership—we can have both. But first, we need to stop treating renewable energy as a burden and start seeing it for what it really is: our best hope for a reliable, affordable, and climate-friendly future.

If the government is serious about its climate promises, it can’t continue down this path. We can’t afford to wait until 2050. The time to course-correct is now.