The latest numbers from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) tell us a story that’s more about stability than a downturn. The annual pace of housing starts dipped by a tiny 0.2 per cent in May — falling from 280,181 in April to 279,510. It’s a drop so small it’s hard to say it signals much of a trend. Instead, it underscores a market that’s holding fairly steady in the face of ongoing economic pressures.
It’s worth noting that the slowdown was mainly in city centres with a population of 10,000 or greater, where starts fell from 259,916 in April to 259,804 in May. Rural starts remained nearly flat, at 19,706. Importantly, actual housing starts in large centres were up from 21,814 in May 2024 to 23,745 last month — a clear sign of ongoing activity and strong builder confidence.
Looking at the bigger picture, the six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts actually ticked up by 0.8 per cent to 243,407 in May. That suggests we’re not seeing a dramatic slowdown but rather a leveling off — which makes sense in a market that’s trying to find its feet in a challenging climate.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Real Estate Association reports that sales rose by 3.6 per cent in May, reflecting sustained buyer interest and a market that’s alive and well, even if it’s not growing at a breakneck pace.
This all points toward a housing market that’s more resilient than alarmist headlines might suggest. Small fluctuations aside, the industry seems to be maintaining a healthy baseline — a reasonable sign of stability in a challenging economic environment.
