The Canadian housing market is beginning to show flickers of life after a bruising start to 2025. But if you’re a condo owner in Toronto or Vancouver hoping to upgrade to a house, those glimmers feel like a cruel joke. The broader housing market may be heading for a rebound, but the condo segment seems trapped in a prolonged slump—with no clear path to recovery.
It’s a strange and frustrating paradox: industry experts are forecasting renewed activity in detached homes and other property types, yet condo sales remain anemic. The data tells a sobering story. Since 2022, condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area have plummeted by 75 per cent. In Vancouver, they’re down 37 per cent. Meanwhile, inventories have ballooned and prices continue their downward spiral.
This isn’t just a blip. It’s a structural stagnation.
And for those looking to climb the housing ladder—from a condo to a townhouse or detached home—it’s become a waiting game with no timer. People who bought condos with the hope that rising prices would help fund their future are now facing the reality that their equity cushion has deflated. As Victor Tran of Rates.ca put it plainly: “The money is just not there anymore.”
There’s a ripple effect, too. If condo owners can’t sell, they can’t buy. If they can’t buy, the recovery in the larger market may end up being far less robust than some are predicting. We’re looking at a cohort of homeowners frozen in place, unable to move forward, and unwilling to take the financial hit that would come with selling now.
What’s worse is that many are beginning to accept this new reality. “They’re kind of stuck,” Tran said. And he’s right. Some sellers, like those working with Vancouver agent Adil Dinani, are biting the bullet—offloading their units at a loss just to get out and move on. But for others, the psychological toll of selling below expectations is just too high.
Adding to the uncertainty is the volume of new listings. In Toronto, for instance, condo listings jumped over 25 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, while sales fell more than 20 per cent. That supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to resolve itself anytime soon, especially when the national housing agency itself admits there’s “little evidence” of an imminent price rebound.
The cruel irony here is that while other segments of the real estate market are stabilizing—or even warming up—condos are dragging behind like a forgotten sibling. Detached home sales may have dipped modestly, and attached homes are even seeing growth in some markets, but the condo sector continues to decline at a disproportionate rate.
Toronto agent Vy Ngo didn’t mince words: “It’s very difficult to sell. It will probably be trending down the rest of the year.” That sentiment is echoed on the West Coast, where Vancouver saw condo sales fall 16.5 per cent year-over-year in June—compared to just a 5.3 per cent drop in detached homes. In some segments, like attached housing, there’s even growth.
All of this creates a deeply uncertain environment for anyone looking to move up in the market. Do you sell now, accept the loss, and hope the house you want to buy hasn’t jumped in price? Or do you wait, possibly for years, with no guarantee that the condo market will recover?
It’s a dilemma with no easy answer. For many, the strategy has shifted from selling to surviving. Renting out their condo is one fallback. Staying put is another. The dream of “moving up” is being replaced by the reality of just holding on.
The fact is, no one can say when the bottom will hit—or if we’ve already hit it. Optimism might be returning to some corners of the housing market, but for condo owners looking to upgrade, the road ahead remains deeply uncertain. And for now, they’ll have to navigate that path with patience, realism, and perhaps a recalibration of dreams.
