Carney Eyes Staggered Byelections as Six House Seats Fall Vacant

Prime Minister Mark Carney has signalled that six upcoming federal byelections are unlikely to be held simultaneously, as a wave of resignations and planned departures leaves a growing number of vacancies in the House of Commons.

Speaking in French, Carney said he has not yet made a final decision on timing, but acknowledged he must weigh several factors chief among them Quebec’s provincial election, set for October 5. Scheduling federal byelections too close to a provincial vote could complicate logistics and suppress turnout in the province.

The exodus began in earnest last week when B.C. Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson and former Bloc Québécois MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay both formally resigned their seats. Wilkinson is heading to Brussels, where he will serve as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. Savard-Tremblay, who had already been sitting as an independent following his break from the Bloc, is preparing to contest the Quebec election under the Parti Québécois banner.

More departures are expected before summer’s end. Former Liberal cabinet minister Steven Guilbeault and MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith have both indicated plans to resign their seats in the coming months, though neither has committed to a specific date.

Guilbeault’s exit is rooted in a principled disagreement with Carney’s government. He stepped down from cabinet last fall after the Prime Minister struck a deal with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to pursue a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast a project Guilbeault has long opposed. When Carney and Smith finalized that agreement in May, Guilbeault made clear he intended to leave federal politics entirely.

Erskine-Smith’s path out has been less straightforward. After an unsuccessful bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership, he also failed to secure his party’s nomination for an upcoming Ontario byelection. He is now reportedly weighing a run for Toronto city council.

Rounding out the list, Alexandre Boulerice a former NDP member now sitting as an independent Quebec MP is expected to resign to run for Quebec Solidaire in the provincial contest. Saskatchewan Conservative Cathay Wagantall, who had previously announced she would not seek re-election, has set a firm resignation date of August 31.

Under federal electoral law, a byelection cannot be called until at least 11 days after the Speaker of the House notifies the Chief Electoral Officer of a vacancy. Once notified, the government has up to 180 days to hold the vote. Any byelection campaign must run a minimum of 36 days, with a ceiling of 50 days.

Those timelines mean Carney has considerable flexibility and considerable incentive to be strategic.

Even if all six byelections are not wrapped up before the House resumes sitting in September, the Liberals are not in immediate danger. The party would still hold a slim majority of occupied seats, giving the government enough breathing room to manage the transition without political crisis.

Still, with Quebec’s election looming and summer timelines tight, the pressure is on Carney to move deliberately and sooner rather than later on at least some of the vacancies.