Canada’s Power Grid Under Pressure as Electricity Demand Surges, Watchdog Warns

Canada’s ability to meet rapidly growing electricity demand is coming under increasing strain, raising concerns about how well the country’s power system will cope with future bouts of extreme cold or heat.

A new assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) finds that several Canadian provinces are now facing elevated risks as demand for electricity rises faster than new supply is being added.

According to the report, Quebec, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Atlantic provinces fall into an “elevated risk” category. That designation does not mean blackouts are inevitable, but it does suggest these regions may have less flexibility if hit by severe or unexpected weather events.

Speaking with Global News, NERC president and CEO Jim Robb said the provinces can handle electricity needs under normal conditions. The concern arises when demand spikes suddenly.

“If they were faced with an extreme weather event or an extreme set of circumstances, they would not have the same degree of reserves,” Robb said.

Large-scale power failures in North America remain relatively rare, but when they do occur, they are usually linked to extreme weather. Robb pointed to Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, which caused widespread outages across parts of the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States regions that had not previously been considered high risk.

Canada has faced similar near-misses. In recent years, intense summer heat domes and severe winter cold snaps have pushed electricity systems close to their limits. While some regions managed to avoid outages, Robb said several were “very close” to experiencing serious problems.

NERC stresses that its findings are a risk analysis, not a forecast of rolling blackouts. Still, the overall trend is worrying.

“What it does say is that the continent in general is struggling to keep up with the demand that is anticipated to come onto the grid over the next five to 10 years,” Robb said.

NERC projects that summer peak electricity demand across North America will increase by 224 gigawatts over the next decade more than a 69 per cent jump compared with current forecasts. Winter peak demand is expected to grow by an even larger 246 gigawatts.

To put that scale into perspective, a single gigawatt is roughly enough to power a large city at peak demand.

The growth is being driven by several factors, including electrification, industrial expansion and the reshoring of manufacturing. Robb said data centres are now the dominant driver of demand growth in the United States, while Canada’s surge is more closely tied to industrial activity and population growth.

Meeting winter demand is a particularly urgent issue north of the border. Last month, two elderly women died during separate wellness checks after prolonged power outages in Quebec during a severe cold snap. More recently, residents of Nova Scotia were urged to conserve electricity as frigid temperatures pushed the grid toward record demand.

On January 26, Nova Scotia Power reported an all-time high in electricity use as wind chills dropped to around –28 C. The province came close to implementing rotating outages before conditions eased.

The utility says it is focused on long-term solutions, including renewable energy, battery storage, power imports from Newfoundland and Labrador, and stronger transmission links with New Brunswick. Plans are also underway to procure 300 to 600 megawatts of fast-acting natural gas generation.

In Quebec, Hydro-Québec said it remains confident it can meet near-term winter demand. The utility recently managed sustained electricity use close to 40,000 megawatts during a cold spell.

Spokesperson Cendrix Bouchard noted that NERC’s assessment looks ahead to the 2029–2031 period and does not fully account for future projects under Hydro-Québec’s Action 2035 plan. That strategy includes roughly $10 billion in investments aimed at energy efficiency and peak-demand management, with a goal of shifting at least 3,500 megawatts of demand by 2035.

“We will need to build more capacity, but not only that we will need to consume better and at the right moment,” Bouchard said.

In New Brunswick, NB Power said the report reinforces concerns it has already raised about looming electricity shortfalls driven by rapid population growth and electrification. The utility is working on renewable energy projects, storage, stronger interconnections and grid security initiatives.

While no Canadian region is currently classified as “high risk,” several U.S. jurisdictions are. Robb warned that across North America, electricity demand is often rising faster than new power plants can be built, while older generation is being retired.

Meeting future demand will require far more generation than is currently planned, a challenge complicated by supply-chain constraints, fuel infrastructure needs and the growing share of variable wind and solar power.

“We need to figure out how to build a lot more generation than what’s being talked about right now,” Robb said. “Power is so critical to every aspect of people’s lives today. If you wake up and flip the switch and the lights don’t come on, that’s a really bad day in the 21st century.”

NERC releases its long-term reliability assessment annually, offering an independent look at whether planned resources are sufficient to keep the lights on over the next decade.