After months of downward pressure, Canada’s housing market appears to be catching its breath. While far from a roaring rebound, the latest numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the steep descent in home sales may be slowing—suggesting we’ve entered a phase of cautious stability.
According to CREA’s April report, actual home sales were down nearly 10% compared to April 2024. That number, at first glance, seems grim. But the seasonally-adjusted data—the metric economists typically lean on—tells a subtler story: a mere 0.1% drop from March. In other words, after a series of sharp declines that began when tariffs were announced in January, the bleeding has largely stopped. As CREA economist Shaun Cathcart aptly put it, “flat is the new up.”
It’s a strange thing to celebrate a standstill, but in today’s climate, stagnation feels almost like progress. Just a few months ago, the market was in freefall, down 20% from November levels. The fact that it hasn’t worsened further in April is a sign that the initial shock of the trade war and uncertainty around interest rates may be subsiding—at least temporarily.
But let’s be clear: we’re not out of the woods. Listing prices continue to slide—down 1.2% month-over-month and 3.6% compared to a year ago. Actual sale prices fared even worse, falling nearly 4% year-over-year. That paints a picture of a market where sellers are starting to yield to the new reality, but buyers still hold the upper hand. It’s not a buyer’s paradise, but it’s certainly not a seller’s market either.
The bigger risk looms on the economic horizon. If the trade war deepens or sparks widespread layoffs, we could see a flood of distressed listings from homeowners who can’t afford to wait or negotiate. That’s when prices could truly tumble, and any current calm would quickly evaporate.
For now, though, Canada’s housing market seems to be in a state of uneasy equilibrium. Sellers are tempering expectations, buyers are waiting for certainty, and the market is—just barely—holding steady. In a world where global trade tensions and rate hikes are the norm, maybe we should take “flat” as a small victory.
