Canadians have long considered the United States our closest ally—a partner in trade, a cultural mirror, and a force of democratic stability. That perception is now in serious decline.
A recent survey from Leger, conducted for the Association for Canadian Studies, found only 16 per cent of Canadians believe our relationship with the U.S. is “good.” Shockingly, that’s just one percentage point higher than those who say the same about our relationship with Russia. Yes—Russia.
Equally surprising, 36 per cent of Canadians now say we have a good relationship with China, and more than three-quarters say the same of Mexico, the European Union, and the U.K.
What’s happening here?
As Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies, put it, this isn’t just about geopolitics—it’s about broken expectations. Canadians have always held our relationship with the U.S. to a higher standard. When it falters, the disappointment runs deeper.
Much of the current resentment can be traced back to the Trump era. During his presidency, Donald Trump’s threats to Canadian trade, economic stability, and even sovereignty left a bitter taste. And while Trump is no longer in the White House, his legacy continues to shape Canadian perceptions. Jedwab even went so far as to suggest Trump “did more to unify Canadians than any leader since Confederation”—not in admiration, but in shared frustration.
This disillusionment has real-world consequences. Ipsos polling shows that the Canada-U.S. relationship now ranks as the third-most important national issue for Canadians. Two-thirds of us say we now think less of the United States as a country, and many are actively avoiding American-made goods and travel.
Even more intriguing, though, is where Canadians are now turning their attention. Mexico is receiving a notable bump in goodwill, despite recent political efforts—like those of Ontario Premier Doug Ford—to distance us from Mexico on contentious issues like fentanyl trafficking. The public, however, seems to see Mexico as a fellow traveler in navigating a fraught relationship with Washington.
China, too, is seeing a tentative shift in public opinion. While only a minority of Canadians say the relationship is good, the fact that more people rank it positively than the U.S. is telling. It speaks not to a sudden surge of affection for Beijing, but to an openness—perhaps even a hope—that it’s possible to improve what has been, in recent years, a tense and at times hostile dynamic.
This week, China’s ambassador to Canada went so far as to propose a partnership to push back against American “bullying” in the global arena. Whether or not such overtures gain traction, the idea of new alliances forming in response to U.S. behaviour no longer feels far-fetched.
Of course, Canada’s future is not about picking sides in a global power struggle. But these survey results should be a wake-up call to policymakers on both sides of the border: Canadians are no longer assuming the United States has our back.
That doesn’t mean the relationship is beyond repair. Far from it. Canadians want a stronger bond with the U.S.—they just need to see it being earned, not taken for granted.
If Washington wants to reclaim its role as Canada’s most trusted partner, it will take more than shared history. It will take respect, reliability, and a recognition that friendship—like diplomacy—must be actively maintained.
