Why Canadians Might Be Shifting Their Trust on Energy to the Liberals — And What That Means for the Conservatives

It’s not often that the federal Liberals are seen as the stronger party on resource management — a topic typically dominated by the Conservative playbook. But here we are, just months away from a crucial election, and a new Ipsos poll for Global News is flipping that narrative on its head.

According to the poll, a majority of Canadians believe that the Liberals, under the leadership of Mark Carney, are better suited than Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives to manage Canada’s energy and natural resources. And not just from an environmental standpoint (which, let’s be honest, isn’t surprising) — but also in terms of job creation and economic growth. That’s big.

Let that sink in.

For years, the Conservatives have staked their brand on being the champions of oil, gas, and development — especially in the West. But now, the numbers tell a different story. Thirty-eight per cent of Canadians say they trust the Liberals more to manage our resources responsibly and to grow the economy, while only 25 per cent say the same for the Conservatives.

So, what gives?

Part of the answer may lie in tone and approach. Canadians clearly want progress when it comes to energy and resource development. In fact, 69 per cent of those polled say we need to “act faster” in light of recent tensions with the U.S. over trade and energy. But there’s a split in how fast and how forcefully. Only 26 per cent think we should “push obstacles out of the way” — a more aggressive, no-holds-barred approach often associated with Conservative rhetoric. Meanwhile, 43 per cent favour moving faster “with some caution.” That language — caution, balance, responsibility — plays straight into Liberal messaging.

Mark Carney’s reputation as a steady, fiscally-minded leader might also be giving Canadians more confidence that the Liberals can juggle economic opportunity with environmental protection. It’s a careful balancing act, but right now, it’s resonating with voters more than the typical “full steam ahead” mantra from the Conservatives.

Even in Alberta — long considered Conservative stronghold territory — the numbers show a tighter race than expected. The Conservatives are still ahead there on energy (41 per cent to the Liberals’ 37), but a 4-point gap in Alberta? That’s nearly unheard of. Historically, the difference would’ve been 20, 30, maybe even 40 points. This narrow margin suggests that the Liberal message is breaking through even in regions where it once had little hope.

But before anyone starts printing Carney 2025 buttons, there’s a caveat: only four per cent of Canadians say energy is a top election issue. So while this poll shows a promising shift for the Liberals, it’s not yet a vote-deciding issue — at least not for most.

That, however, could change.

Kyle Braid of Ipsos suggests the upcoming leaders’ debates might be the Conservatives’ best shot at flipping the script. If Poilievre can clearly differentiate his party’s stance from the Liberals and convince Canadians that his plan isn’t just about bulldozing ahead but includes real economic and environmental foresight, he might regain ground.

But make no mistake: the Conservatives have work to do. The Liberals, for now, have managed to take an issue once firmly in Conservative territory and make it their own — not through dramatic shifts or flashy policies, but by presenting a tempered, balanced approach that speaks to Canadians’ desire for both progress and responsibility.

That should be a wake-up call for Poilievre. Canadians want growth, yes — but not at any cost. The question now is whether the Conservatives can adapt their message before it’s too late.